A recent study published in Nature Communications suggests that the Earth’s temperature could rise by up to 14 degrees Celsius (25.2 degrees Fahrenheit) if carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere double. This prediction is significantly higher than the 2.3 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (4.1 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) increase estimated by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers from the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) and the Universities of Utrecht and Bristol conducted the study.
They analyzed sediment samples from the Pacific Ocean’s seabed near California, focusing on oxygen-depleted zones that better preserve organic material. This allowed for a clearer picture of ancient CO2 levels.
Potential CO2 impact on Earth’s future
The study’s first author, Caitlyn Witkowski, stated, “The temperature rise we found is much larger than the 2.3 to 4.5 degrees Celsius that the UN climate panel, IPCC, has been estimating so far.”
The research revealed that 15 million years ago, Earth’s average temperature was over 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit), about four degrees warmer than today. This temperature level aligns with the IPCC’s worst-case scenario predictions for the year 2100. Professor Jaap Sinninghe Damsté, a senior scientist at NIOZ and professor of organic geochemistry at Utrecht University, emphasized the implications of the findings.
“This research gives us a glimpse of what the future could hold if we take too few measures to reduce CO2 emissions,” he warned. “The clear warning from this research is: CO2 concentration is likely to have a stronger impact on temperature than we are currently taking into account!”
The study’s findings underscore the urgency for robust climate action to mitigate CO2 emissions and avert a potentially catastrophic rise in global temperatures. As the world continues to grapple with the challenges posed by climate change, research like this serves as a stark reminder of the need for immediate and effective measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
