The Met Office has predicted an 80 percent chance that a sudden stratospheric warming event in March could bring severe cold weather to the UK. This weather pattern is similar to the one that caused the ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018, which brought heavy snow, ice, strong winds, and led to 17 deaths across the country. Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: “This could lead to some impactful weather in the UK toward the end of March.
What those impacts might be will become clearer nearer the time.”
The sudden stratospheric warming involves the rapid descent of cold air from the stratosphere, known as a polar vortex collapse. It is expected to occur by the middle of the month. Recent warmer weather is likely to end next week, with a sharp drop in temperatures as a band of rain brings colder air southwards.
Wintry showers are expected in northern and northeastern areas, with temperatures dropping below average by Tuesday. In rural Scotland, temperatures could plunge as low as -4°C overnight, with daytime maximum temperatures ranging between 5 to 8°C. The impact of a sudden stratospheric warming is often characterized by a reversal of winds high in the stratosphere, where the polar vortex resides.
Predicted cold from stratospheric warming
These winds are currently weakening rapidly. The phenomenon involves a disruption of the rapid westerly winds above the Arctic, known as the polar night jet, by natural weather patterns or disturbances lower down in the atmosphere.
This causes the jet to “break just like waves on the beach,” and cold air descends rapidly in the polar vortex, raising the stratosphere’s temperature by as much as 50°C over a few days. The warming effect typically takes place between 10km and 50km above the Earth’s surface and is not directly noticeable on the ground. However, it can cause the jet stream to ‘snake’ more, creating a large area of blocking high pressure, which usually forms over the North Atlantic and Scandinavia.
This blocking high pressure tends to result in a long spell of dry, cold weather in northern Europe and the UK. Not all sudden stratospheric warming events lead to severe weather. Deputy chief meteorologist Chris Bulmer explained: “A frontal zone will move south across the UK during Sunday night and Monday, with much colder air following from the north.
With these cold northeasterly winds, we are likely to see some wintry showers across the north and the east of the UK next week, but any accumulations of snow are likely to be largely restricted to hills. We’ll also see a return to overnight frosts in many areas.”
Forecasters continue to monitor the situation and advise staying prepared for potential weather impacts later this month.
Image Credits: Photo by Paul Pastourmatzis on Unsplash
Noah Nguyen is a multi-talented developer who brings a unique perspective to his craft. Initially a creative writing professor, he turned to Dev work for the ability to work remotely. He now lives in Seattle, spending time hiking and drinking craft beer with his fiancee.
