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New study by Hansen predicts AMOC shutdown

New study by Hansen predicts AMOC shutdown
New study by Hansen predicts AMOC shutdown

A new study led by renowned climate scientist James Hansen reveals that global warming has accelerated significantly since 2010.

The research predicts that the rapid melting of polar ice could shut down a key ocean current by 2050, triggering catastrophic sea level rises along the U.S. East Coast and dangerous climate shifts in northwestern Europe. Hansen and his team found that the rate of global warming since 2010 has increased by more than 50 percent compared to the previous four decades.

Global temperatures have risen more than 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit (0.4 degrees Celsius) in just the past two years.

This sudden increase will make it nearly impossible to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius (2.7-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). The study also indicates that the increased rate of warming will worsen heatwaves, droughts, and flooding, and accelerate the spread of diseases associated with warmer temperatures.

A shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) discussed in the study would result in sudden sea level rises along the East Coast and bring crop-threatening climate extremes to parts of Europe. Despite La Niña conditions, which typically cool global temperatures, January 2025 recorded the warmest January since pre-industrial times, at 1.75 degrees Celsius above the baseline. This persists even though the El Niño event of 2023/2024 has long faded, with researchers remarking on the sustained and unexpected warmth.

Hansen’s findings attribute the warming spike partly to a reduction of sulfate aerosol pollution over Northern Hemisphere oceans, resulting from stricter shipping fuel regulations.

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Hansen warns of AMOC collapse

This reduction has lessened cloud reflectivity, allowing more heat to reach the Earth’s surface.

The study emphasizes that global warming is most pronounced in the Arctic, where increased freshwater from melting ice sheets is disrupting the North Atlantic. This could have dire consequences for AMOC, which is crucial for warming much of Western Europe. Contrary to these findings, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in 2021 that while AMOC will slow, it is not likely to shut down this century.

However, Hansen’s study argues that ice melt will accelerate, pointing to historical data showing that ocean warming can lead to rapid sea ice loss and significant sea level rises within a century. Jeffrey Sachs, president of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Solutions Network, commended Hansen’s consistent accuracy in long-range climate projections during a webinar discussing the study. He emphasized the global implications of the new research, noting the moral and political challenges in addressing climate change.

Sachs criticized leaders favoring continued fossil fuel development, describing the scenario as a political disaster driven by greedy interests. He argued that while strategies like carbon taxes or geoengineering exist, the fundamental issue is the lack of ethical governance considering future generations. The study underscores the urgency for global action to mitigate the escalating climate crisis, warning that without significant changes, we risk crossing critical points of no return, such as the potential shutdown of AMOC, leading to severe and irreversible global consequences.

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April Isaacs is a news contributor for DevX.com She is long-term, self-proclaimed nerd. She loves all things tech and computers and still has her first Dreamcast system. It is lovingly named Joni, after Joni Mitchell.

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