SpaceX ended 2024 with a final launch of Starlink satellites into orbit on Dec. 31. The launch marked SpaceX’s 134th mission of the year, or 138 missions if including Starship test flights.
SpaceX conducted more than half of the space launches around the world last year, outpacing America’s second-most prolific launch company, Rocket Lab USA, and even the entire nation of China. Despite this impressive feat, SpaceX still missed its own target of 144 launches for 2024, falling a half-dozen short. However, SpaceX has already begun the new year with renewed vigor, conducting its first launch of 2025 on Jan.
6. It followed this with a second launch just two days later and plans a third within 24 hours of that, followed by another potential test flight of its Starship on Jan. 10.
SpaceX appears to be taking a more cautious approach with its projected launch numbers for 2025. Industry observers speculate that the company could launch “upwards of 180 times” this year, after missing its projections two years in a row. CEO Gwynne Shotwell has indicated a target between 175 and 180 Falcon launches in 2025.
More crucially, SpaceX plans up to 25 Starship launches in 2025. This shift signifies more than just a PR move. The emphasis on a firm target for Starship launches while setting a fuzzier goal for Falcon launches hints at a strategic pivot.
Starlink’s final launch of 2024
The Falcon is gradually being phased out in favor of the more capable Starship. Late last year, the Federal Aviation Administration approved SpaceX’s plan to increase its permitted launch rate of Starships from five times to 25 times annually.
No sooner had the FAA done that, than SpaceX asked for even more. Speaking at the Baron Investment Conference in New York, Shotwell predicted that over the next four years, Starships could be launched up to 400 times — roughly 100 times per year. Shotwell highlighted that the Falcon 9, which helped SpaceX dominate the space launch industry, is slated for obsolescence and will be phased out over the next six to eight years.
This strategy makes economic sense. While still under development, the Starship is improving with each test flight and is on a clear path to becoming an operational launch system capable of carrying both cargo and passengers to low Earth orbit, the moon, and even Mars. The Starship can carry over 100 tons of cargo and up to 100 astronauts at a time, significantly more than the Falcon 9.
Already, it’s believed to cost about $90 million per Starship flight, compared to $70 million for a Falcon 9 flight. Musk has suggested that the cost of Starship launches could eventually fall below $10 million. With such potential cost efficiencies, switching to the Starship once fully operational makes clear economic sense, and phasing out the Falcon 9 is a strategic move.
The significant question for the industry is how other companies will compete when SpaceX can launch payloads for significantly lower costs. Rocket Lab USA, along with other spaceflight companies, will find it challenging if SpaceX can drastically undercut their prices. In summary, SpaceX’s strategic shifts and ambitious launch targets for 2025 reflect its vision of leading the spaceflight industry into a new era dominated by its Starship rocket.
The coming years will undoubtedly be crucial as SpaceX works towards achieving its goals and setting new benchmarks in space exploration and commercial launches.
Noah Nguyen is a multi-talented developer who brings a unique perspective to his craft. Initially a creative writing professor, he turned to Dev work for the ability to work remotely. He now lives in Seattle, spending time hiking and drinking craft beer with his fiancee.
