A global climate change extinction risk meta-analysis emphasizes that we are at a crucial point and that drastic action is needed. The impacts of climate change are intensifying, and according to the most recent studies, urgent measures are required to keep warming below 1.5°C. The climate crisis significantly threatens global biodiversity, and effective conservation policies rely on accurate models and predictions.
To increase certainty in available models, UConn Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Professor Mark Urban analyzed 485 studies, comprising over 5 million projections, to create a global assessment of climate change extinctions. Although many scientists have made predictions about extinction risks from climate change for specific regions or species, we must understand the big picture,” Urban said. “One way to understand this is through a meta-analysis, which estimates an overall effect of extinction risk while accounting for uncertainty.
The meta-analysis allows us to test how results vary by different factors, such as species, region, and model assumptions. My goal was to provide the most up-to-date, transparent, and comprehensive assessment of extinction risk from climate change to inform decisions about greenhouse gas emissions.
Methods for predicting extinctions have become more sophisticated over time. Scientists now incorporate more biological information about individual species, such as their dispersal or interactions with other species.
These newer approaches should provide a better understanding of future extinction risks and identify the species most at risk so we can find ways to protect them. Whereas past assessments indicated high uncertainties, this analysis suggests with increasing certainty that climate change has caused and will continue to cause global extinctions,” Urban said. “The risk of global extinction accelerates, rising from 2% currently to 30% under the highest-emission scenario.
Our current policies place the world on a path to a 2.8°C rise in global temperature, which would still result in 5% of species being at risk.
The biggest surprise was that Urban wasn’t surprised. He expected newer models to have better news, but the consistent results only strengthened the urgency to take action.
urgent conservation actions needed
Extinction debt characterizes species trending toward extinction that will become extinct without intervention. The bad news is many species might be declining due to climate change, but we have not yet recognized these threats. The good news is we could still mitigate these outcomes with effective conservation measures.
Earth’s hidden biodiversity refers to the many species that remain unnamed or undiscovered. Many of these species will likely live in threatened regions like the tropics. These more threatened species often aren’t included in extinction models, meaning the actual risk could be higher than current estimates.
Identifying and protecting this biodiversity is a critical challenge for scientists. A considerable mismatch exists; climate change and its impacts are accelerating, but global actions remain incremental,” Urban said. “Although the recent COP 29 made some limited progress, much more is needed to prevent the worst effects of climate change.
We have reached 1.5°C and are experiencing impacts from heat waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and extinctions. Every day we wait, it costs us more to mitigate and adapt. Therefore, actions need to be stronger and faster.
Science tells us what needs to be done, and technological advances provide solutions. We need courageous leaders to do what is necessary.”
April Isaacs is a news contributor for DevX.com She is long-term, self-proclaimed nerd. She loves all things tech and computers and still has her first Dreamcast system. It is lovingly named Joni, after Joni Mitchell.
