NHC has raised the chance of development of the disturbance off the southeast US coast to 70% over the next 24-48 hours. No tropical impacts are expected across the northeast Gulf Coast. #FLwx #GAwx #ALwx pic.twitter.com/EPWlJtnM17
— NWS Tallahassee (@NWSTallahassee) July 4, 2025
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of potential tropical development – one off the Southeast U.S. coast and another in the Eastern Pacific. A stalled front off the Southeast coast has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days. The main impact is expected to be heavy rain, mostly offshore.
However, tropical weather can always bring unexpected surprises. The NHC has begun issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 3, located about 150 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. TD 3 is drifting north at 2 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
There is a medium chance (60 percent) of tropical development late today or this weekend off the Atlantic coast of the Southeast U.S. No tropical impacts are expected around the northeast Gulf Coast. #FLwx #GAwx #ALwx pic.twitter.com/QSqve5IKhe
— NWS Tallahassee (@NWSTallahassee) July 4, 2025
Yes, we do have tropical activity with the formation of Tropical Depression 3.
NO, it is not ours!!!
It is currently off the coast of GA and SC and is forecasted to make landfall early Sunday morning in SC as a weak Tropical Storm. #lawx #mswx pic.twitter.com/VA7QfW8IWF— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) July 4, 2025
It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Chantal on Saturday and could make landfall on the South Carolina coast as a weak tropical storm on Sunday. While concerning, this development is much less severe than past storms like Hurricane Beryl, which caused catastrophic damage in the Windward Islands as a Category 4 hurricane before becoming the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic. Beryl ultimately caused over $9 billion in damage and claimed 44 lives in Texas.
The primary focus this weekend is on the tail end of an upper-level trough and weak surface front pushing off the U.S. East Coast. As the trough moves east, a remnant is expected to dive into the Southeast U.S., potentially nurturing the development of a weak surface low along the offshore frontal zone. This low could become a tropical depression or tropical storm over the weekend.
Nhc monitors tropical developments
Sea surface temperatures around Florida are seasonally warm, which could support tropical development. Regardless of cyclone formation, heavy rains may affect Florida’s west-central coast.
In the Eastern Pacific, another disturbance has been spotted off Mexico’s southern coast, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This system may follow a path similar to Tropical Storm Flossie, paralleling Mexico’s southern Pacific coast while staying offshore. It could intensify into a hurricane by early next week.
The NHC gives it an 80% chance of development over the next seven days. Despite these developments, the Northern Hemisphere tropics have been unusually quiet so far in 2025. Sea surface temperatures in the hemispheric subtropics are above average, while the deep tropical waters have cooled compared to last year.
As of July 2, data from Colorado State University shows slightly fewer named storms and significantly fewer storm days and cyclone energy than average. Interestingly, there has yet to be a single named storm in the North Indian Ocean this year, and the Northwest Pacific, typically the most active region, has contributed less than 20% of the hemisphere’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). The Eastern Pacific is the main driver of Northern Hemisphere storm activity this year.
While the data indicates a quieter season so far, it is crucial to remain vigilant as conditions can change rapidly.
Rashan is a seasoned technology journalist and visionary leader serving as the Editor-in-Chief of DevX.com, a leading online publication focused on software development, programming languages, and emerging technologies. With his deep expertise in the tech industry and her passion for empowering developers, Rashan has transformed DevX.com into a vibrant hub of knowledge and innovation. Reach out to Rashan at [email protected]
