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Ai boosts weather forecasting amid climate crisis

Weather Forecasting
Weather Forecasting

The world is increasingly likely to rise 3°C above pre-industrial levels this century, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The annual ‘United in Science’ report consolidates the latest climate science in the hope of steering us towards a safer future. This report comes as central Europe battles severe flooding in the wake of Storm Boris, with Italy on high alert following mass evacuations in Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Austria.

We need urgent and ambitious action now to support sustainable development, climate action, and disaster risk reduction,” says WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. The decisions we make today could be the difference between a future breakdown or a breakthrough to a better world. Despite the troubling clarity of the science, the report offers grounds for hope.

It highlights solutions as well as the need for urgency.

As the world grapples with the environmental implications of artificial intelligence (AI), the WMO outlines one field where AI is making significant strides: weather forecasting. AI and machine learning (ML) can make skilled weather modeling faster, cheaper, and more accessible to lower-income countries, the report says.

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Major strides in space-based Earth observations offer “vast opportunities” for the future, according to the WMO report. High-resolution and high-frequency observations are crucial for effective weather forecasting, climate prediction, and environmental monitoring.

The report highlights another promising part of our digital world: immersive technologies such as digital twins, virtual reality, and the metaverse.

These technologies can help experts make better-informed decisions by simulating flood and drought events, predicting water flow, and assessing land degradation. Despite these exciting opportunities for tech to address climate change, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable development, the report stresses that these global challenges cannot be solved by one kind of knowledge alone.

Ai advances in weather prediction

Instead, it emphasizes the need for a ‘transdisciplinary approach’, in which diverse actors including scientists, policymakers, Indigenous communities, and civil society groups co-create solutions together. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly stated, multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) are critical for saving lives. More than half of the world’s countries are now protected by such systems, but significant gaps remain.

With the Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) initiative, WMO aims to see everyone covered by the end of 2027. AI also has a role to play here, the report says. Taking stock of the climate crisis should be a sufficient spur to action, the report suggests.

The impacts of climate change and extreme weather are reversing development gains and threatening the well-being of people and the planet. Under current policies, the United in Science report gives a two-thirds likelihood of global heating rising 3°C above the pre-industrial era by 2100. Urgent action is needed to avert the most disastrous scenarios.

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To limit global heating to below 2°C or 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 must be reduced by 28% or 42%, respectively, from the levels projected from current policies. That’s a steep ask, but there are precedents. The report notes that initially, GHG emissions were expected to increase by 16% from 2015 to 2030.

Now, the projected increase is 3%. “But the emissions gap remains high,” the WMO-partnered report maintained. It warns that if there is no change to current policies, there is a 66% probability that global warming will reach 3°C this century.

Cameron is a highly regarded contributor in the rapidly evolving fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. His articles delve into the theoretical underpinnings of AI, the practical applications of machine learning across industries, ethical considerations of autonomous systems, and the societal impacts of these disruptive technologies.

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