Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, predicts that the cost of using artificial intelligence (AI) will drop by a factor of 10 every year. He compared this trend to Moore’s Law, which states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every 18 months. “Moore’s Law changed the world at 2x every 18 months; this is unbelievably stronger,” Altman said.
I was curious about how the halftone dot effect from the OpenAI Intelligence Age ad could be created, so I asked ChatGPT & Claude – give it a try (link below) pic.twitter.com/sH3ZIx8LdL
— Tibor Blaho (@btibor91) February 10, 2025
OpenAI recently announced “Stargate,” a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment project. Altman emphasized that as AI becomes cheaper, its use will increase significantly. “The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use,” he noted.
Altman made three key observations about the future of AI. First, the cost reduction will continue. Second, an AI model’s intelligence is proportional to the resources invested in its development.
OpenAI published a detailed update ahead of the third AI Action Summit in Paris next week, where they plan to discuss AI's role in driving economic growth and launch their AI Economics event series, which will continue in London and Brussels later this month before they publish… pic.twitter.com/viQ9ON7Vbj
— Tibor Blaho (@btibor91) February 8, 2025
Third, the trend of exponentially increasing investment in AI will continue, driving further advancements. “If these three observations continue to hold true, the impacts on society will be significant,” Altman stated. He predicted that the price of many goods would fall dramatically, although luxury goods and limited resources like land may increase in price.
How new AI Trend of 2025, already begun: supplementing LLMs with external rule-based (symbolic) mechanisms to handle what the LLMs on their own can’t — whilst pretending that those systems aren’t essential components of the larger system.
This is a little bit like saying a piece…
— Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) February 9, 2025
Altman’s predictions on AI cost trends
The announcement of Stargate comes amid increased competition in the AI sector, with tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta investing heavily. These companies’ combined capital expenditures are expected to exceed $320 billion this year.
Altman’s predictions and the Stargate initiative highlight the rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence and its potential to reshape industries and economies globally. However, he also acknowledged that the benefits of AI might not be equally distributed. The historical impact of technological progress suggests that most of the metrics we care about are health outcomes, economic prosperity, etc.
— get better on average and over the long term. However, increasing equality does not seem technologically determined, and addressing this may require new ideas,” Altman wrote. He expressed concern that the balance of power between capital and labor could become distorted and may necessitate early intervention.
One idea, Altman’s “compute budget” concept, aims to make AI accessible to all but may be challenging to implement. Altman also cautioned that authoritarian regimes could misuse AI for mass surveillance. OpenAI’s focus remains on individual empowerment and preventing such misuse of the technology.
As OpenAI continues to push the boundaries of AI development, Altman emphasized the need to balance safety with individual empowerment. AI, he stated, will permeate all sectors of the economy and society, necessitating more control given to users, including through open-source technologies.
Johannah Lopez is a versatile professional who seamlessly navigates two worlds. By day, she excels as a SaaS freelance writer, crafting informative and persuasive content for tech companies. By night, she showcases her vibrant personality and customer service skills as a part-time bartender. Johannah's ability to blend her writing expertise with her social finesse makes her a well-rounded and engaging storyteller in any setting.
