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Internet of Things: The Roulette Game of the Decade

Will the Internet of Things wither on the vine?


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Two stories on the Internet of Things (IoT) caught my eye this week. First, IDC’s prediction that the IoT market will balloon from US$1.9 trillion in 2013 to $7.1 trillion in 2020. Second, the fact it took hackers 15 seconds to hack the Google Nest thermostat – the device Google wants to make the center of the IoT for the home.



These two stories aren’t atypical, either. Gartner has similarly overblown market growth predictions, although they do admit a measure of overhypedness in the IoT market (ya think?). And as far as whether Nest is an unusual instance, unfortunately, the IoT is rife with security problems.

What are we to make of these opposite, potentially contradictory trends? Here are some possibilities:

We simply don’t care that the IoT is insecure. We really don’t mind that everyone from Russian organized criminals to the script kiddie down the block can hack the IoT. We want it anyway. The benefits outweigh any drawbacks.

Vendors will sufficiently address the IoT’s security issues, so by 2020, we’ll all be able to live in a reasonably hacker-free (and government spying-free) world of connected things. After all, vendors have done such a splendid job making sure our everyday computers are hack and spy-free so far, right?

Perhaps one or both of the above possibilities will take place, but I’m skeptical. Why, then, all the big numbers? Perhaps it’s the analysts themselves? Here are two more possibilities:

Vendors pay analysts (directly or indirectly) to make overblown market size predictions, because such predictions convince customers, investors, and shareholders open their wallets. Never mind the hacker behind the curtain, we’re the great and terrible Wizard of IoT!

Analysts simply ignore factors like the public perception of security when making their predictions. Analysts make their market predictions by asking vendors what their revenues were over the last few years, putting the numbers into a spreadsheet, and dragging the cells to the right. Voila! Market predictions. Only there’s no room in the spreadsheet for adverse influences like security perception issues.

Maybe the analysts are the problem. Or just as likely, I got out on the wrong side of bed this morning. Be that as it may, here’s a contrarian prediction for you:

Both consumers and executives will get fed up with the inability of vendors to secure their gear, and the IoT will wither on the vine.

The wheel is spinning, folks. Which will it be? Time to place your bets!

the IoT will wither on the vine


   

Jason Bloomberg is the leading expert on architecting agility for the enterprise. As president of Intellyx, Mr. Bloomberg brings his years of thought leadership in the areas of Cloud Computing, Enterprise Architecture, and Service-Oriented Architecture to a global clientele of business executives, architects, software vendors, and Cloud service providers looking to achieve technology-enabled business agility across their organizations and for their customers. His latest book, The Agile Architecture Revolution (John Wiley & Sons, 2013), sets the stage for Mr. Bloomberg’s groundbreaking Agile Architecture vision.

Mr. Bloomberg is perhaps best known for his twelve years at ZapThink, where he created and delivered the Licensed ZapThink Architect (LZA) SOA course and associated credential, certifying over 1,700 professionals worldwide. He is one of the original Managing Partners of ZapThink LLC, the leading SOA advisory and analysis firm, which was acquired by Dovel Technologies in 2011. He now runs the successor to the LZA program, the Bloomberg Agile Architecture Certification Course, around the world.

Mr. Bloomberg is a frequent conference speaker and prolific writer. He has published over 500 articles, spoken at over 300 conferences, Webinars, and other events, and has been quoted in the press over 1,400 times as the leading expert on agile approaches to architecture in the enterprise.

Mr. Bloomberg’s previous book, Service Orient or Be Doomed! How Service Orientation Will Change Your Business (John Wiley & Sons, 2006, coauthored with Ron Schmelzer), is recognized as the leading business book on Service Orientation. He also co-authored the books XML and Web Services Unleashed (SAMS Publishing, 2002), and Web Page Scripting Techniques (Hayden Books, 1996).

Prior to ZapThink, Mr. Bloomberg built a diverse background in eBusiness technology management and industry analysis, including serving as a senior analyst in IDC’s eBusiness Advisory group, as well as holding eBusiness management positions at USWeb/CKS (later marchFIRST) and WaveBend Solutions (now Hitachi Consulting).

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